The use of probability models in football to calculate Expected Goals, Expected Goals Conceded and Expected Points, have taken off to new heights in recent years - with more fans, coaches, managers and even players paying attention to these hypothetical numbers. Between statistical probability, the actual result, and the expectations for all that has been produced, we analyze how many points each team should have won in each match, based on Expected Points.
Despite losing by a horrific 5-1 scoreline to VFB Stuttgart, Lucien Favre's sacking from the helm of Borussia Dortmund came at a strange time, with the club topping their UEFA Champions League group and no new manager in sight. Assistant coach Edin Terzic was given the interim role and unfortunately for the Black & Yellows, things could not have gotten off to a rockier start under the German coach. Terzic won just six of his opening thirteen matches in charge, forcing Dortmund into a difficult situation heading into the final third of the season with so much work to do in the quest to reclaim a place in the UEFA Champions League for next season. But after switching formations against Sevilla, Dortmund have found form again and have now won three on the spin, against big-hitters Sevilla, arch-nemeses Schalke 04, and relatively small-hitters Arminia Bielefield, who troubled Bayern Munich just weeks before. This recent run of form has culminated at the same time as two key decisions - Terzic's formational change away from the 4-2-3-1, and the announcement of Marco Rose as the club's future manager. The announcement gave Dortmund a massive lift and allowed them to regain confidence and focus. But Terzic and co also deserve some credit for the team's recent performances, posing some smart tactical tweaks along the way. Here is a tactical analysis of Edin Terzic's Borussia Dortmund, and whether or not they can make the top four this season.