It’s been four Premier League matches for Xabi Alonso at Chelsea, and already, the Blues are so much more fun. They’re scoring goals left, right, and centre, have the most harmonious and eye-pleasing front three in the league, and a tactically complex shape full of new faces and utter disorganization in defense. Chelsea fans might have been hoping for a slightly better start to this season, but they can be optimistic about the club’s direction under Xabi Alonso. Here is an analysis of Chelsea so far this season, and what needs to change.
SYSTEM OF PLAY: 3-4-2-1
Xabi Alonso pulled off one of the most incredible seasons in German football history back in 2023-24, when his Bayer Leverkusen side went undefeated en route to a first ever Bundesliga title. It wasn’t just a slip up from Bayern Munich after eleven seasons as champions. It was one of the most dominating seasons from any German side in history – an unbeaten run of 51 matches in all competitions.
Embed from Getty ImagesThroughout that season, Alonso utilized a 3-4-2-1 formation. He built his midfield around Granit Xhaka and Ezequiel Palacios; had two of the most exciting, goal-scoring wing-backs in the world in Jeremie Frimpong and Alejandro Grimaldo; Florian Wirtz to run rapid; and Jonathan Tah to hold everything together at the back. It was a magnificent side, and one that was so well drilled and organized.
This 3-4-2-1 at Chelsea is complete and utter chaos. It’s so disorganized in defense, so open to exploit, and full of individuals who have spent almost no time playing with each other. They’ve conceded 2.3 goals per match in the league this season, the third worst record in the entire division.
Embed from Getty ImagesBut on the other end of the spectrum, they’ve scored the second highest number of goals so far – 2.5 per game (behind only Brighton – 2.7). Scoring just slightly more than they’re conceding has meant that they’ve won two of their four matches so far by narrow margins.
But this can’t continue. They’ve had just 44% of the ball this season, have been forced into making the most saves (4.8 per match), and have been overly reliant on set-piece goals (a league high 4 set-piece goals so far).
Embed from Getty ImagesWhile we’re witnessing the most exciting front-three in the league, each of whom have done wonders to get the best out of each other, we’re also witnessing a side in complete shambles.
They miss Moises Caicedo dearly at the heart of their midfield, who can cover so much ground and break up the play like no one else in their eleven. They miss Enzo Fernandez and his tenacity too, after he left for Manchester City. Marc Cucurella hasn’t been properly replaced, and they’ve shuffled around their defense enough to forego all hopes of achieving harmony from one game to the next.
Embed from Getty ImagesIt reminds me of Manchester United last year over the Christmas period, when so many of their best players were away, and replaced by ones who didn’t look all that convincing at the top level. Romeo Lavia and Jorrel Hato both have the same problem in that they’re running around without being hyper-aware of what’s around them. But I’m not entirely convinced that the slight increase in possession would be that useful from Valentin Barco or Pep Chavarria in their place.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhat Chelsea really need right now is a back-three that understands how to work in harmony with one another, like Conte achieved with the experience of Cahill, Azpilicueta and David Luiz. Fofana, Colwill and Lacroix all have nice qualities, but really lack cohesiveness.
This defense would be better with players like Dan Burn or Lewis Dunk – who just get how to organize a back-three, and have the right leadership to hold their position and tighten those distances between them.
I’d argue they’re even missing Trevoh Chalobah, who started to develop really nicely last season and turned into their most reliable centre-back. Selling him just as they’re returning to a back-three came as a big surprise.
Embed from Getty ImagesAt least he’s playing in the Champions League this season!
Beyond that, what’s really missing is exactly this: Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez and Marc Cucurella. Alonso’s team would be a completely different side with the energy and experience that those three players provide. Those are three players that can win you the Premier League. But beyond that front three (and maybe Pedro Neto in glimpses), Emi Martinez and Reece James are the only two that are really a cut-above mid-table replacement level players.
So Xabi Alonso has all of these great ideas and a tactically flexible formation that might come good in the future. But for now, they’re relying on their front-three to score over 2.5 goals per game, which just isn’t sustainable.
FRONT-THREE MAGIC
Embed from Getty ImagesFor all the doom and gloom I’ve outlined in the first section, Chelsea can be proud of what they’ve created in attack. Unlike the back-three, this is a front-three that understands how to get the best out of one another.
Cole Palmer has been firing on all cylinders this season, and Xabi Alonso has given him the freedom to roam around the pitch wherever he wants, working his left-foot magic all across the field.
Morgan Rogers has brought dynamism and a goal-scoring panache to that left-wing with his variety of left-foot and right-foot goals.
Embed from Getty ImagesJoao Pedro has suddenly looked like the second best striker in the league, finishing off chances with more coolness and composure than Chelsea have witnessed in years.
Embed from Getty ImagesBetween the three of them, they’ve scored 8 goals in 4 matches, covering the most distance (in km) across those four games in a blue shirt. The way they interchange and sprint around one another is magnificent, and they’re all so neat and tidy in how they shift the ball between them.
After scoring 16 Premier League goals last season, Joao Pedro has levelled up again. He’s the first outlet in transition, really smooth in holding up the ball, and excellent at these little flicks and tricks to combine with the running power of Morgan Rogers and the left-foot class of Cole Palmer.
Rogers has been awesome, even vindicating what is normally an impossible price-tag to justify. While Joao Pedro is the cleanest of finishers at the club, Rogers might eventually overtake him for goals because he’s so good at getting into the right positions, and then has that variety to go either on his left or right.
Cole Palmer meanwhile is way too left-footed and he’s been paired up with another left-footed player down the right in Pedro Neto. But that’s been good for him in one sense, because he’s then able to float into deeper positions to pick up possession, and come all the way to the left where he can combine in tight spaces with Rogers. Palmer is the clever one of the three, and he’ll likely be the one popping up with the most assists.
It’s also been good for Pedro Neto, who likes to receive in the wide areas and go 1v1 against an opposing full-back. With Chelsea stretching the width of the field and having more attacking numbers to watch out for, Neto is finding himself in some fabulous spots to receive.
But around them, one of the problems that Chelsea have faced this season is that they’re overcomplicating the amount of players in the attack.
At times when I watch Chelsea this season, I see almost no rest-defense.
Outside centre-backs want to gallop or carry the ball forward. Reece James is constantly getting into positions to cross the ball. Pedro Neto wants the ball at his feet and wants to work his magic too. They stretch themselves so far wide with so many players in the attacking third that they can be hit on the counter and struck without warning.
I have this vivid memory of the camera focusing on Danny Welbeck applauding the fans, only to have Brighton take a quick throw-in and throw Chelsea’s back-line into unorganized chaos.
From having no one in position to stop the quick throw-in, Chelsea concede a goal, and suddenly, all of their hard work in the attack is undone. This has been a sight far too common this season.
When you have that talented of a front-three, you don’t need to overcomplicate things. They’ve scored so many goals this season on the break, and they’ve done much less in their longer spells in possession.
For this kind of system to work, you need a Granit Xhaka and a Jonathan Tah to keep everything organized and steady at the back. You need players to do the ugly work and dominate the midfield with their energy and tenacity.
Embed from Getty ImagesRegan Slater was awesome against the Blues, just as he was against United, because he never stopped running and was always in the way of what Chelsea tried to build centrally. This is exactly the kind of player they need in midfield to make this system work.
Embed from Getty ImagesMoises Caicedo will do all of that when he returns, and that will be a big bonus. But I would still wonder if his presence will be enough if they don’t sort themselves out at the back.
DEFENSIVE IDEAS & CONCERNS
Embed from Getty ImagesAs you’d expect to come with a 3-4-2-1, Chelsea have been decent when it comes to pressing from the front. There was a great moment against Hull where the ball shifted wide toward the touchline and Alonso started shouting “push, push, higher, push!”. With those few words, Chelsea stepped on the gas pedal, won the ball, and then switched the field toward Pedro Neto to go on the counter attack.
Embed from Getty ImagesTheir first goal of the season came from good defensive work from the front-three, forcing Fulham’s wide centre-backs to play the ball long, where they were then immediately taken out of the game when Maxence Lacroix won the leaping header and the ball fell into Palmer’s feet.
But when the opposition attack at pace and without as much warning, Chelsea have struggled to react. Their rest-defense needs to dramatically improve, and feature the right combination of players in that 3+2, so that as one centre-back comes wide to cover, the others can follow and connect the dots.
They get bullied and outmuscled on the break, and they’ve been severely susceptible to chances down their left-side in particular – which features a combination of Romeo Lavia, Jorrel Hato, and Levi Colwill. So many goals have been conceded down that side, and they just look like individuals fighting for their lives rather than a team fighting as one.
Embed from Getty ImagesEmbed from Getty ImagesHull City’s 5-4-1 (or 3-4-2-1) has worked so well because they’re organized at the back. Their centre-backs aren’t trying to do anything flashy or pretty. They’re just marking the opposition forwards closely, remaining tight together, and then releasing their own forwards as soon as they can. If Chelsea would just play with uglier, stay-at-home defenders, this would already be a better situation.
Embed from Getty ImagesSame with the midfield. Lavia always seems to be a step too far away from his partner, and they’re both too far away from the centre-backs.
One of them needs to be doing more work to screen the opposition’s striker and support the handling of long passes over the top, as the other shifts wide to cover 2v1 defensive situations.
Against an energetic midfield like Brighton or Hull, they struggled to impose themselves. Against one more classy like Arsenal, they were never in the game.
If I were Alonso, this would be the first place I’d be looking to make a change. But it wouldn’t be the only one.
So with that, Xabi Alonso still has much to figure out ahead of the upcoming months. Moises Caicedo’s presence will be essential to the puzzle if they are to finish in the top four, and they may even need to look for some reinforcements in January to grow their muscle, steel, and experience on the pitch. Thanks for reading and see you soon!
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