Who should replace Casemiro at Manchester United?

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There are exits that feel like endings, and endings that feel like reckonings. Casemiro’s Instagram announcement this week — confirming he’ll leave Manchester United at the end of the season — is both.

It’s the departure of their most experienced leader, and at the same time, a clear willingness from United to move on from the era of plugging star power into any sizable enough gap.

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Casemiro carries United’s highest wage, and it’s clear that the Red Devils are ready to invest those finances elsewhere.

While this might be a smart financial decision, it’s also a decision they have to get absolutely spot on. Casemiro is just about irreplaceable. He’s their most experienced player, their most experienced winner, and one of the most vocal leaders on and off the pitch. What he offers on the defensive end can’t really be matched by anyone that the Red Devils can feasibly go after.

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But despite the difficulty United will find in designating a successor, I’ve analyzed the best potential options for the job. It might still be months away. But I answer the question: Who should replace Casemiro at Manchester United?

CRITERIA

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Manchester United’s quest to replace a player of the calibre of Casemiro is borderline impossible. Any modern day no. 6 that can match Casemiro already plays for one of the best clubs in the world.

Joshua Kimmich, Moises Caicedo and Rodri are probably off-limits.

Therefore, the scope of this search is limited to players who could feasibly join United for a reasonable price.

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Given what a modern day ‘number 6’ is meant to produce, and Casemiro’s own strengths, replacements had to meet certain statistical thresholds to even make the first round of cuts.

Anyone incapable of progressing the ball well, winning a reasonable percentage of their duels, or entirely inactive on the defensive end was excluded from the search.

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Two exceptions to the rule were included – Adam Wharton and Carlos Baleba – who I’ve included to show why they’d be entirely different prospects to Casemiro, and unlikely fits.

After mulling over the data, the final list came down to just fourteen players (because round numbers are secretly less fun). Many are current or former Premier League players. Only two are over the age of 29, with the average age of the pool just over 24.

With this final list in mind, I assessed how these fourteen players compared to Casemiro through data and video (across the past 365 days), in some of the most significant categories.

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So with that: who is Casemiro as a player?

The 33-year-old midfielder is fantastic in the air, combative, warrior-like in his approach, and a magnificent reader of the game. Sometimes criticized for a lack of pace, Casemiro is one of those players that doesn’t need to use speed to excel at the heart of the midfield. He’s always in the right place, excellent at holding down the midfield, and a vocal presence.

While United could certainly garner an upgrade in ball progression and forward passing (maybe even James Garner), it’s his defensive aptitude and leadership that simply can’t be bought.

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Recognizing this, weight is given to not only who might be able to make up for at least half of that defensive loss, but who could also upgrade where Casemiro lacks. Final candidates are then assessed via both their ability to fulfill the defensive losses set to come, and their ability to add that touch more on the ball.

AERIAL PRESENCE & COMBATIVENESS

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When I think of Casemiro, I immediately think of this robust, physical, combative player. He’s willing to throw his body in the way, fight for every ball, and get his head on the end of any cross. With 5 goals this season, he’s a massive presence in both boxes.

Backing that up with the stats, Casemiro has the most defensive actions per 90 of anyone in this scouting cohort. That goes back to when the list was thirty players, to the final cut at fourteen.

The other standouts include a few of the older heads in the group. Wilfred Ndidi, Joao Palhinha, and Manuel Locatelli are among the other oldest players in this analysis. Perhaps sitting and remaining that defensive stalwart comes with age.

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Atletico and American midfielder Johnny Cardoso also fares well in this category, but has a fairly small sample size to work with from this season.

Then there’s the Premier League names. Lewis Miley stands out for his ability in the air. Amadou Onana fares well in both categories, as does his teammate Boubacar Kamara. Sandro Tonali and Adam Wharton aren’t the most proactive defensive players, but Elliot Anderson is clearly a physical presence with much to offer a club like United.

He’s even already gotten himself acquainted with Manuel Ugarte!

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In this category, you can already begin to see how difficult it might be to designate that successor. But those circulating the rumour mills most heavily can still hold their own in making up for most of that loss.

defensive solidity

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Likely to become a librarian in his next life, Casemiro’s memorized the encyclopedia of football attacks. He tops the charts for possession-adjusted tackles and interceptions, and wins a high percentage of his total defensive duels. So not only is he often in the right place to pick up possession and cut off attacks, he’s also excellent at timing his challenges.

Again, this will be difficult to replace. But Ndidi and Locatelli emerge as obvious names once more. They’d be solid at sitting, holding, and reading whatever necessary to break up attacks.

Nicolas Seiwald of Leipzig also comes out as a surprisingly savvy defensive option, not just a box to box presence. Elliot Anderson and Boubacar Kamara fare well enough, but it’s Amadou Onana and Vitaly Janelt who emerge for different reasons.

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Good luck beating Onana in a 1v1. Janelt on the other hand is a really clever presence in Brentford’s midfield, often sliding and shuffling to cut out the play.

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As far as Baleba goes, this is the most glaring example of his different skillset. It’s never a surprise to see a top club linked with a Brighton midfielder. Many have come before him. But he’s more of a Kobbie Mainoo than a Casemiro.

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His strengths lie within mobility on and off the ball, covering ground around the midfield.

Then there’s Wharton and Tonali. Wharton might not complete a high number of defensive actions, but at the very least, he’s usually successful when committing.

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Tonali on the other hand has left more to be desired from that position this season.

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In this section, it’s again Manuel Locatelli that emerges as the most similar to Casemiro. He’s been playing on the right side of a midfield two just like the Brazilian, anchoring everything as his partner ventures box to box. Amadou Onana meanwhile is the top candidate for replacing Casemiro’s defensive solidity, with a supremely high percentage of defensive duels won.

PROGRESSIVE PASSING

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Casemiro’s never been known as the standout progressor in any of his club teams, but he still performs a role in helping United progress. A smart switcher of play or clever through-ball passer, Casemiro certainly holds his own in knocking the ball about.

But this is the obvious area where United could add more to their midfield. Mainoo is much more of an engine than an orchestrator, and this is precisely why the top linked names have always been Adam Wharton, Elliot Anderson and Manuel Locatelli.

That’s what’s flashy. That’s what people love to see.

And sorry for the awkward looking graph. You will have to blame Manuel Locatelli, who stands head and shoulders above anyone else. It doesn’t matter what passing stat you might select for a graph like this, Locatelli always comes out on top, and by a significant margin.

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Part of that comes from playing for such a possession-heavy team, as opposed to the other players in the selected group. But you can’t knock Locatelli’s ability to progress the play, find the right pass, and spray beautiful switches of play around the pitch.

Given that he’s already ranked high on the defensive end, this puts the Juve captain as the clear favourite for the position. He’d be United’s own Michael Carrick, but with the physical presence and frame more adjacent to Casemiro himself.

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That would be a massive addition for United, and one that would allow them more control amidst the chaos of matches where they find themselves without the ball for long stretches.

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As for other likeminded replacements, Elliot Anderson stands out. He’s a smart progressor both in his carrying and passing, and more likely to find a teammate than Casemiro.

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Of names to do less well in this category, Wilfred Ndidi and Joao Palhinha leave more to be desired with their progression. Again, Carlos Baleba and Sandro Tonali neglect to stand out too. Instead, it’s Nicolas Seiwald, Lewis Miley, and their former player in James Garner that reach higher standards.

But again, the clear name here is Locatelli, who now emerges as the top candidate.

TOP CANDIDATES

1. MANUEL LOCATELLI

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Manuel Locatelli checks all the boxes ☑️. He’s an intelligent player, exhibiting tremendous ability on and off the ball. He’s also been Juve’s captain this season, developing those leadership skills in the centre of the park.

The 28-year-old has experience playing at the heart of a midfield three for both club and country, and more recently, in a midfield two just like Carrick’s current team.

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The Italian giants might not let him go for cheap, but he won’t cost Casemiro’s arm and leg, and should still be the first player that United ask about.

As mentioned, Locatelli brings not only experience to the midfield, but more command and control. United have become overly reliant on long passes this season, and don’t love to play through the thirds. Locatelli on the other hand, is never shy about having the ball at his feet.

Here the Italian receives the ball in his own box during a build-up phase. He’s immediately swarmed by three pressuring players.

But with just a simple little touch from one foot to the other, Locatelli takes two of those players out of the game, knocking his next touch into space that evaporates the third.

This calm composure in midfield is something that United have not really had since Carrick himself. It’s one of the reasons for why I advocated for Fernandes to be a good option for the Red Devils as that ‘8’ in Amorim’s system. They need a ball progressor in the centre of the pitch. In Locatelli, they’d have exactly that.

2. AMADOU ONANA

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As a fantastic alternative, United might look toward the towering Amadou Onana from Aston Villa.

Truth be told, Onana plays alongside a ‘6’ in Boubacar Kamara, who was also included in this search. This gives him slightly more license to roam forward. But it’s clear that the big Belgian stands out for his defensive aptitude, aerial threat, and command in central areas. There’s a reason why Onana, Kamara and Tielemans have formed one of the best midfield units in the Prem, and it’s much to do with Onana’s box to box energy.

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Those long legs make him an excellent tackler, and once making the ball his own, he loves to run.

With all that pace and power, Onana would add an extra element into United’s attacking transitions, and ability to progress through dribbling and carrying.

Still only 24 years old, Unai Emery would not let him go for cheap. But for what he offers on the defensive end, few can size up to Onana – both figuratively and literally.

3. ELLIOT ANDERSON

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Already an England international and destined for a move somewhere this summer, Elliot Anderson is probably the most sought after Premier League midfielder since Declan Rice. And after missing out on Rice all those years ago, you can imagine United don’t want to miss out on Anderson.

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He’s not only an excellent progressor and passer, but a physical specimen that can make his way around the midfield. He can control matches, he can put in a defensive shift, and he can make that cutting edge pass that unlocks a defense.

Amidst the natural links, I’ve heard some commentary that Anderson isn’t the most proactive defender. I beg to differ!

Although he does play more of the box to box role than the sitting one, he’s perfectly capable of doing much of the same work that makes Casemiro so good.

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He’s likely the most expensive player on the list, but at the age of 23, certainly worth the price for the Red Devils.

CONCLUSION

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While United’s quest to replace Casemiro in midfield remains a difficult task, they can be confident with some combination of Amadou Onana, Elliot Anderson or Manuel Locatelli. Each would offer some sense of defensive stability even if not reaching Casemiro’s high standard; and bring their own unique attributes in possession.

Adam Wharton, Carlos Baleba and Sandro Tonali on the other hand might not be the best statistical fits, even if linked to the job. But whatever United decide to do, it’s clear that Casemiro will be missed.

To join the conversation on who you think the Red Devils should sign, simply comment below! Thanks for reading and see you soon.