Why Raphaël Guerreiro would be perfect for Manchester City

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Borussia Dortmund have enjoyed one of their most dramatic and remarkable seasons in years, going toe-toe-toe with Bayern Munich right up until the final day of the season.

Throughout their stunning run of form in 2023, Raphaël Guerreiro was integral to the process, both as a high-flying inverted-wing-back, and as a creative central midfielder. The 29-year-old has always been a versatile playmaker, an incredibly intelligent shaker and mover, and there’s no denying that he’s been one of Dortmund’s best players across the past decade.

But now, even despite the problems the club have endured at full-back since Achraf Hakimi departed, Raphaël Guerreiro might be available to others on a free transfer.

From Dortmund’s perspective, this should not remain the case. Guerreiro directly contributed to 16 of the team’s 83 goals in 2022-23, ending the season as the league’s top assist maker. He flourished in a variety of positions, from the out-and-out ’10’ to an ‘8’ playing to the left of Emre Can, to his normal slot at left-back, all the way to the left-wing. With that kind of versatility alone, Guerreiro should be one of the club’s greatest assets. When you then take into consideration everything he’s accomplished at the club since 2016, a contract renewal seems like a no-brainer.

However, without knowing all the ins and outs of the situation, it’s difficult to know whether or not Guerreiro might want a move away from the club. If he’s seeking a move to explore new avenues of life in football, there would be no better fit than Manchester City. Just wait until we dive in!

WHY MANCHESTER CITY?

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To play at Manchester City under Pep Guardiola, you have to be one of the most intelligent footballers around. Raphaël Guerreiro fits that billing, and would easily transfer his skills over to a variety of roles wherever needed within City’s rotation.

City often adopted a 3-2-4-1 shape to their attack in 2022-23, positioning John Stones or Rico Lewis in central areas alongside Rodri, as they jumped up from a defensive position. Whether by his own desire or through the instructions of his coach, Guerreiro has also inverted into central areas for years at Borussia Dortmund. He’s completely comfortable operating inside, and it nicely opens up his astute perceptions of space by allowing him to see and seek more of the pitch.

Within that ‘inverted’ role, a player must be capable progressing the play and passing through the thirds. According to FBRef, the 29-year-old Portuguese playmaker ranks within the top 5% of players in his position for progressive passes, and the top 4% for passes into the penalty area.

When it comes to the accuracy of those moves, Guerreiro again ranks toward the top of our ‘Inverted Fullback’ category. In 2022-23, he completed nearly 80% of his forward passes and over 80% of his progressive passes, despite the difficulty of the types of moves he aims to pull off. If you then put him in a City team with even better principles around keeping the ball and creating triangulations for connection, you’d likely see those attacking attributes shine.

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But in addition to style of play, we must also consider the team’s environment and culture. City have a winning mentality, and so too does Guerreiro. The 29-year-old was part of Portugal’s Euro 2016 winning side as a youngster, and an integral part of Dortmund’s DFB-Pokal winning team a few seasons back. As a Portuguese player, he’ll also be well familiar with Rúben Dias and Bernardo Silva. As a Dortmund man, he’ll also have pre-existing relationships with İlkay Gündoğan, Manuel Akanji, and Erling Haaland. This move is starting to make even more sense now, isn’t it?

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But the best managers and the best team set-ups find a way to bring out not only the best in a player’s strengths, but also in mitigating their weaknesses. Guerreiro is great when it comes to counter-pressing, but he’s less great at recovering position and contesting 1v1 duels in his defensive third. He has the clever anticipation and tactical awareness to cut out passing lanes when deployed in central midfield, but he’s never quite worked out where to be at all times as a left-back. This is where he’d again be a perfect fit for City.

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‘Inverted Fullbacks’ within City’s system are required to be that first line of defensive pressure in counter-pressing situations, ensuring the rest of the team can fall back into shape and prepare for the transition. In my analysis of the team this season, I even credited that 3+2 rest-defense as an integral reason why they’ve become better at defending in transition, as they now have that extra centre-back that can shift across to either side without pulling their partner into disarray.

Guerreiro has proven to be capable of immediately shutting down central avenues in defensive transitions for Dortmund this season.

That would then position him in a defensive stance that he’s comfortable fulfilling, whilst mitigating some of his other defensive tasks. It’s true that it’s been the model for City full-backs to also be sound 1v1 tacklers and strong in the air. But it’s even more true that Guardiola has found a way to improve even the best of players by catering to their strengths. We can only imagine how the 29-year-old’s attacking exceptionalities would flourish in a sky blue shirt. This is also where we remind you, he’d be available on a free transfer.

ATTACKING PRINCIPLES

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It’s no secret that Raphaël Guerreiro would be classified as an ‘attack-minded’, ‘possession-based’ full-back. He’s far from that defensive ‘Wide Warrior’ type we created within our player role system, and likely never will be! Instead, he’s far more likely to move away from the full-back position altogether, where his brilliant vision and sneaky through-passes can come to life in the final third as an ‘8’ or ’10’. While Guerreiro made his mark as a left-back this season in 75% of his matches, it was those other 15% where he really strutted his best stuff.

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SEE: Game of Numbers #13 – Guerreiro as a ’10’

In his five matches as a central midfielder, Guerreiro scored three goals and assisted four – acting as Dortmund’s key man every single time. He flourished within the tight-space triangulations inside the final third, with his one-touch brilliance and through-pass magnificence completely coming to life. Wyscout has this tool called ‘smart passes’, which comprise an array of moves that are difficult to pull off (splitting defenders, nutmegs, outside of the boot, back-heels, chips, etc.).

Guerreiro completed 61% of those ‘smart pass’ attempts, more than any other ‘Inverted Full-Back’ in our database. He’s simply a genius when it comes to picking out a pass with the perfect accuracy and weight, and often it’s a pass no one else saw coming.

But his virtuoso-esque traits continue all the way into the final third, where Guerreiro assisted more goals, and combined more goals and assists, than any other full-back in Europe’s top five leagues across the last 365 days. The likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Jordi Alba might beat him on expected assists, but no one can compare when it comes to the Portuguese’s actual goal output.

In fact, when you compare him to his Dortmund teammates, only Julian Brandt contributed more (17) than the left-back (16). Not Jude Bellingham, not Sebastien Haller, not Marco Reus, not anyone. That’s just how important he was to Edin Terzic’s team in 2022-23.

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Put him higher up the pitch in the İlkay Gündoğan slot for a team that boasts Erling Haaland and Kevind de Bruyne, and his creativity might only skyrocket all the more.

When it comes to his ability on the ball – that possession and progression category we speak of so often, you’d be hard-pressed to find too many better players on the planet. When it comes to his physicality, he always leaves more to be desired. This may be a reason why City overlook his signature, as the Premier League is often considered to be one of the most physically challenging leagues in the world.

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Guerreiro possesses the mobility and durability to excel in the Prem, but he loses more than 60% of his attacking duels from that smaller frame. His dribble rate is comparable to John Stones, and he’s great at attacking open space. But the 29-year-old does not boast the brilliance of Bernardo Silva on-the-ball to make up for a smaller frame inside the City midfield.

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Instead, his role should become about perceiving open spaces both on and off-the-ball, through his intelligent passing and movement. He’s superb at playing under pressure and avoiding challenges, so he’d just need to keep his ‘attacking duels’ to a minimum to bring out the best in his artistry.

DEFENSIVE PRINCIPLES

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Where he stands out on the attacking end does not always shine through on the defensive end. However, Guerreiro ranked in the top 12% across the last calendar year for interceptions, despite Dortmund’s dominance in matches. That aligns well with his ability to anticipate the actions of the opposition, and perceive how to position himself based on BOTS. He even made more possession-adjusted interceptions (6.5) and successful defensive actions (6.8) than any City player this season.

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It’s those 1v1 duels where Guerreiro tends to struggle more, lacking the pace and physicality to hold off attackers. He ranks toward the bottom of our list on defensive duel % and aerial %, even if beating a few City full-backs in both categories.

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It would therefore be important for Guardiola to limit the amount of aerial battles and 1v1 duels he participates in, such as through a permanent midfield role. Guerreiro’s greatest hurdle has always been finding ways to adequately recover in transition after being caught so far up the pitch. But once moving into midfield, that became a non-existent issue, as Julian Ryerson held rank instead. City would need to accomplish something similar to get the best out of their Portuguese wizard, ensuring he can continue to focus on what brings him the most joy in attack.

RECAP

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Raphaël Guerreiro would be absolutely brilliant for Manchester City. Here’s why:

• Experience playing as an ‘Inverted Fullback’, and in a system where his role constantly changes from one match to the next.
  
• Versatility to play as a left-back, as an ‘8’ or even as a ’10’.
  
• His tactical intelligence and awareness of space rivals İlkay Gündoğan, making him an ideal candidate to replace the German if he departs.
  
• His strengths in attack and defense would have the potential to thrive, while his weaknesses could be mitigated within Guardiola’s approach.
  
• Guerreiro is already familiar with several players within the City side, and would potentially have an easier time adjusting to life in Manchester as a result.

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Any scouting & recruitment scenario is based on a variety of factors, and Guerreiro would be a dream signing for Manchester City based on the array of reasons we’ve outlined. For Dortmund’s perspective, you simply cannot let him go for free. But for a club like Manchester City, this would be an absolute no-brainer.

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