The 2022-23 season has been a disastrous campaign for Tottenham Hotspur. They’ve continued to keep Harry Kane trapped at the top of the tower, relying on his 30 goals to crash into an eighth place finish. Had it not been for Kane this season, Tottenham may very well have finished closer to Chelsea.
Embed from Getty ImagesBut despite their torrid time this season, I disagree with many of the takes that Tottenham are in need of a complete rebuild and overhaul to change their fortunes around. More likely, they need a manager who can employ a specific style of play that brings out the best in their players, and stays consistent over time. This is what Antonio Conte accomplished when he over-achieved with the squad in 2021-22 and finished fourth.
Embed from Getty ImagesThat said, a few positions remain in need of severe upgrades, specifically at the back. A goalkeeper has been needed for a while, as Hugo Lloris continues to stutter in the twilight of his career. Two centre-backs would also increase the ability for Spurs to adequately adopt a back-three in a way that actually accomplishes defensive stability. Meanwhile, both wing-back positions have been of need in recent times, however Pedro Porro looks like a great fit for their right-hand-side.
Embed from Getty ImagesBack-ups could be useful across the pitch, but I would keep the pre-existing chemistry formed by their front three, especially if you can somehow convince all three of them to stay without any European football next season. An attacking unit of Kulusevski, Kane and Son has all the makings of one of the best front-lines in the league; and one that actually works to bring out the strengths in each player. It’s likely best suited for a side playing on the counter, but Kane and Kulusevski are both excellent in possession, with Son providing the perfect compliment with his powerful running and awareness of space in behind.
Embed from Getty ImagesIn midfield, I’d also keep Rodrigo Bentancur and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg in-tact. Both have fared fine this campaign, and in fact, Spurs’ form dipped as soon as Bentancur became unavailable. Like their front-three, they even formed a super solid partnership in the early days of Antonio Conte – one that was being regarded as one of the best pairings in the league. The final player I’d keep in the side is World Cup winner Cristian Romero, who has all the potential to be brilliant if the right manager just hones in his aggressive edge.
Embed from Getty ImagesSo once more, in my search to fix Tottenham without European football, I’m searching for a goalkeeper, two centre-backs, and a left-back. But before divulging the names, it’s also important to establish a criteria within the search.
CRITERIA
Embed from Getty ImagesTottenham Hotspur should theoretically have the pull to attract most players in the world. But without European football next season, their task to acquire the services of many of those typical names becomes all the more difficult. The budget to afford new signings will be bleak, and many players will have greater ambitions than to spend a season at a team struggling to find their identity.
We’ve therefore gone for players that are below a market value of €35 million, and visibly play for sides that are of a lower calibre than Tottenham. Given the need for sustainable longevity in the side, we’ve also gone for players that are below the age of 28 years old.
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter the development of an initial database, I excluded any players who had won fewer than 45% of their duels across all phases of the game in 2022-23. Tottenham need a set of combative players willing to go to war for the club. They have been accused of having soft tonalities for several seasons in a row now, and their warrior mentality will need to grow moving forward. They need more hard-working players like Højbjerg and Romero in the team, and that is something that will forever be essential in our scouting process for the club.
Embed from Getty ImagesI also excluded any player who had completed less than 75% of their passes this campaign. Within a Tottenham rebuild, we want to ensure that our potential players are capable of passing and progressing the ball up the pitch, and helping to dominate more matches in 2023-24.
So with that criteria in mind, our initial search then led to a player database of 35 players across the four positional needs.
GOALKEEPER
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter settling for Hugo Lloris over the past few years, Tottenham are in desperate need of a well-rounded keeper who has greater inclinations to sweep in behind the defense. The club need someone with the mobility to spring off their line, command the eighteen yard-box, and distribute effectively in behind the defense.
Thankfully, our task to find a standout keeper for Tottenham was made all the easier by our recent assessment of the best ‘Sweeper Keepers’ across Europe in 2022-23. A host of relatively new names stood out in our analysis, including Valencia’s Giorgi Mamardashvili, Torino’s Vanja Milinković-Savić and Burnley’s Arijanet Muric.
Embed from Getty ImagesThese names stood out across the board – not only for their age or their ability to sweep. Muric and Mamardashvili ranked third and fourth respectively for our ‘distribution’ score in that analysis, showcasing severe competence in playing out from the back and progressing the play. Milinković-Savić on the other hand ranked just behind Alisson for his sweeping characteristics. That’s some nice company!
Embed from Getty ImagesIn addition to the names you might know less, we cannot ignore the slightly older David Raya in the equation here, who also performed well in that ‘Sweeper Keeper’ debate. Raya would be perfect in many ways, as an already proven Premier League player. He’s a vocal presence at the back, and has performed incredibly well at a club that has punched well above their weight. It’s the exact recipe for why I suggested players like Lewis Dunk and James Ward-Prowse to Tottenham in the past, both of whom could have completely changed this season for Spurs.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe problem with selecting Raya to fill this void is that he’s possibly out of reach. Manchester United and Chelsea will both be after a new keeper, and simply have more to offer both in terms of finances and ambitions. If you can get the services of the Brentford keeper for just €25 million as listed by Transfermarkt, you’ve immediately improved your side with a player who is guaranteed to excel in the Prem. But if Raya feels like it’s the right time for a move, why Tottenham when you can go to Chelsea or United? After all, he’s wearing a shirt that says ‘Hollywood’!
Embed from Getty ImagesSo with that, we’ve opted for maximal longevity here in the signing of 22-year-old Giorgi Mamardashvili. The Valencia keeper has impressed this season with a positive post-shot XG +/-, a save percentage above 70%, and solid numbers in every sweeping category. But importantly for the sake of Spurs, he’s also a stand out when it comes to possessing and progressing the ball. Of our candidates, only Muric ranks ahead of his long passing range (69%) and forward pass completion (80%) according to Wyscout. Percentages like this tend to be atypical for keepers who are still often tasked with lumping the ball long when required.
When you add in the bonus of his potential to only grow his game from here as a young 22-year-old keeper, Tottenham would be foolish not to make an offer for Mamardashvili.
CENTRE-BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesI’ve been saying this for the past four seasons now, but Tottenham are in need of not just one, but two new centre-backs to revolutionize their squad. They’ve been poor in the position since the decline and eventual disappearance of Alderweireld and Vertonghen, reducing the club to a host of players who either make incredibly erratic decisions, or standout for their on-the-ball quality more than their defensive aptitude. Eric Dier is one such player, who can be useful as the ‘libero’ in the back-line, spreading play and organizing some of the build-up. But he’s ultimately more limited than what Tottenham so desperately need at the heart of their defense.
Embed from Getty ImagesOne of the key considerations in signing a ‘Sweeper’ to play at the back is that they must be capable organizing and leading the back-line. We suggested Axel Disasi to be a great future signing for Liverpool for precisely that reason, having already held experiences as a captain for AS Monaco. Despite being a French international and one of Ligue 1’s most commanding figures, Disasi continues to go under the radar.
Embed from Getty ImagesHe’s one of the standout progressors in European football, but also boasts some of the best defensive duelling percentages around. He should be the first name on the list.
Another man who featured in that ‘Replacing Virgil van Dijk’ article was Obite Evan Ndicka, who should be on the radar of every club in Europe this season. With Tottenham already operating in a back-three, Ndicka seems tailor-made for many of Spurs’ intended principles of play. In fact, we even landed on Tottenham as the perfect destination for the Frankfurt defender in last year’s ‘Finding Obite Evan Ndicka’s next club‘.
Embed from Getty ImagesEvan Ndicka would be excellent in either a back-four or back-three for Tottenham, and possesses a greater attacking threat as he gallops and carries the ball through the left-half-spaces. As he becomes a free agent this summer, this seems like a nailed-on obvious move to at least attempt. But like David Raya, we also recognize the quality that the French defender offers and his potential ambitions to play at a higher level.
Embed from Getty ImagesSo if Ndicka remains out of reach, we suggest Tottenham continue their search in the Bundesliga, looking deeper into a pair of Leverkusen defenders. Edmond Tapsoba looked shaky at the best of times in his first campaign back in 2021-22, but has now firmly solidified himself as a sublime all-rounder this time around under Xabi Alonso. Tapsoba boasted an even better defensive duelling percentage than Disasi this season, while also exuding poise and precision in possession of the ball. He played in all three positions across Leverkusen’s back-three this campaign, and remains just 24 years of age. This should be a signing well within their reach.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe final candidate to make our cut would be the underrated French defender Jean-Clair Todibo, who’s quietly gone about his business at OGC Nice the past few campaigns. Tobido could play at the heart of their defense as the commanding figure, or the more progressive player to operate down one of the two sides. Where the Frenchman excels is in his physicality and frame to win the vast majority of his 1v1 battles across all phases of the game.
Embed from Getty ImagesOn that note, no outfield player ranked ahead of him on combined duelling percentage within our 35-player database. He commands the air, times his challenges expertly well, and has the ability to lead the back-line. Combine that with an eye for a forward pass and a calming presence on the ball, and you get a player who accomplishes more than Eric Dier by quite some margin.
So if I were at the helm of Spurs, Todibo would be my second choice behind Disasi to replace Eric Dier as the ‘libero’ in the back-three. I would then make a move for Ndicka or Tapsoba to play on the left side of the defense, recognizing that Pedro Porro looks like a far superior wing-back than full-back, and that Spurs have now operated with a back-three for quite some time. All that’s left to do now is find the man to play on the left-side of Spurs’ 3-4-2-1.
LEFT WING-BACK
Embed from Getty ImagesRealistically, this should have never been a positional need at this stage in Tottenham’s existence. Sergio Reguilón was formidable in his first campaign with the club under Jose Mourinho, and looked tailor-made for an Antonio Conte system. But for whatever reason, the Italian manager never fancied the Spaniard, and he left on loan to Atletico Madrid. Conte even brought in his own man in Ivan Perišić through that tumultuous process, who presents the disadvantage of not being able to ever play in a back-four.
Embed from Getty ImagesTottenham need a left-wing-back who can play in any formation, and contribute more on the defensive end than the Croatian winger. Perišić has always been a hard-working player capable of contributing assists, but there’s a reason why we said ‘winger’.
Embed from Getty ImagesNow at the age of 34, the Croatian would be an excellent player for any youngster to learn from in training. But only one player on our database ranked below Perišić on total duel percentage this season. He struggled to cope with the pace of the Prem in both attack and defense, and often looked out of sorts when coming up against speedy right-sided attackers.
Axel Disasi and Evan Ndicka already improve this end of the spectrum for Spurs, helping them cope with the pace of transitions. But our left-wing-back must still maintain defensive solidity if Tottenham are to drastically improve upon their dismal eighth place finish.
I might surprise some people by first suggesting Fulham’s Antonee Robinson. Still only 25-years-old, the American provides an easy answer, having already illustrated his quality in the Premier League.
Embed from Getty ImagesNo full-back on our list won a higher percentage of their total duels than Robinson (57%). Perhaps most imperatively, he won 71% of his defensive duels. Encouragingly, that’s even despite making more successful defensive actions and engaging in more defensive duels than everyone on our list except one single player.
Embed from Getty ImagesOn the attacking end, his crossing percentage is incredibly comparable to Perišić, suggesting that he could easily increase his assist numbers in an environment that includes the likes of Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son.
Embed from Getty ImagesThen when faced with having to race back the other way in transition, Robinson possesses remarkable recovery speed – capable of covering short distances in a quick amount of time. This is pivotal for a player in that wing-back role, and makes the Fulham man an attractive option all the more.
Robinson would need to improve his ability progressing the play and passing out from the back, but when it comes to ball superiority, taking players on and making smart decisions in the final third, he’s right up there with the best.
Embed from Getty ImagesProviding an alternative, Tottenham should keep an eye on the contract situation of Ian Maatsen, who excelled on loan this season at Burnley. He’s quite a dynamic wing-back capable of bursting box-to-box, but struggles to command his 1v1 duels to the same devastating effect as others. Still only 21, Maatsen would be a fun pick-up from Tottenham.
Embed from Getty ImagesTimothy Castagne meanwhile provides an incredibly safe option, considering he can play on either side, and has already proven himself as a capable defensive presence in the Premier League. Coming from a relegated club, he’d also be relatively inexpensive.
Embed from Getty ImagesBut if more is to be desired and Tottenham are willing to take a gamble, Tottenham should be looking at two 23-year-old left-backs from outside of Europe’s top five leagues. Ferdi Kadıoğlu looks like a phenomenal player in the making, and one that can play on either side of the defense. At 23, he’s already had four full seasons as a starter for Fenerbahçe, and is now their vice-captain. He’s competent and assertive in 1v1 situations, but also one of their most lively attackers. Kadıoğlu completed 4.1 dribbles per 90 according to Wyscout’s data, which ranks incredibly comparable to Perišić.
Embed from Getty ImagesBut perhaps more impressively, he stood out this season for his outstanding progression and accurate forward passing. Only the next player performed better on that front than him within our scope, but the Turk came out as the more well-rounded player. If you can then get the 23-year-old for a no-risk €15 million fee, why not take that gamble?
Embed from Getty ImagesPerhaps the only reason not to take that gamble would be in the signing of a similar player, such as Ajax’s Owen Wijndal. Fans of Dutch football will be well familiar with Wijndal at this point, having also become a regular starter in his league four seasons ago. Wijndal just made his move to Ajax in the build-up to the 2022-23 season, but he still looks a cut-above the Eredivisie. Within Ajax’s possession schemes, he completed close to 88% of his passes into the final third, and 85% of his progressive and forward passes.
Embed from Getty ImagesTottenham need full-backs that can not only run their socks off, but also contribute to build-up play and progression into the final third. This is the advantage of someone like Owen Wijndal or Kadıoğlu over someone like Antonee Robinson or the already instated Ivan Perišić.
Embed from Getty ImagesTottenham might want to see the 23-year-old truly establish himself at a club like Ajax before making a marquee move, but he offers another attack-minded left-footed option for Spurs to consider.
All and all, I would probably make a move for both the Premier League proven Antonee Robinson and the incredibly cheap Ferdi Kadıoğlu, reinforcing the dynamics of the team down both wings.
NEW STARTING ELEVEN
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter giving us the reigns on the transfer activity, this would be the new Tottenham starting eleven heading into next season. Tell me that’s not an upgrade!
While it’s unlikely that Spurs will be this smart about their recruitment, we hope for their sake that they find the right players to get them back on track for a European finish next season!
If you’re interested in more recruitment advice for your club, feel free to reach out. I offer recruitment analysis as part of my Consultation, Performance Analysis & 1-on-1 Coaching with Rhys, and I’m always happy to expand my horizons. Thanks for reading and see you soon!
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