Looking back to late 2017 and Liverpool’s defense was considered the weakest component of their rebuilding squad. Fast forward to August 2018 and within two transfer windows, the Reds had revolutionised their back-line with assist making machines like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson, shifting the promising Joe Gomez to centre-back in the process. Perhaps most vitally, the additions of Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk gave Klopp’s team the necessary stability to push onto the next level.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Dutchman’s performances that year attained second place in the preceding Ballon d’Or vote, after a historic Champions League winning campaign.
Just a few seasons later, the Reds would stutter into complete abyss following Van Dijk’s ACL injury during the Merseyside derby. The entire team dynamic collapsed without their vice-captain, and the Reds went on a torrid run only to just creep into the top four with a few matches to spare.
Embed from Getty ImagesVan Dijk’s return post-injury has been fairly remarkable, but he is starting to show signs of slowing down. He’s no longer that same commanding presence that simply cannot be dribbled around. Liverpool meanwhile are suffering, with the Europa League now acting as their best shot at attaining European football next season. The Dutchman himself is now 31 years old, and often remains alongside another key figurehead of the same age in Joël Matip.
Embed from Getty ImagesIbrahima Konaté is a stalwart for the future, but reinforcements at centre-back again appear necessary for another season. With that, we attempt to assess the best candidates to replace Virgil Van Dijk at Liverpool, as Jurgen Klopp prepares for the future.
Van Dijk’s style of play + Criteria
Embed from Getty ImagesVirgil van Dijk has redefined the phrase ‘defensive stability’ as Liverpool’s influential centre back, famed for his 2018-19 season, where he managed the whole year without being dribbled past. But alongside his strengths dealing with danger, the Dutchman has long been one of the best ball-playing defenders in the game. For a club like Liverpool that want to “press and possess”, this simply opens more alleyways to change games. He was often famed for his long diagonals and picture perfect vision for the likes of Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané, where Liverpool had success for years.
Embed from Getty ImagesIn this search, we therefore require not only a defensively sound centre-half, but a brilliant possessor of the ball. A strong ball carrier would be useful, but not as necessary when factoring in the men that usually play next to the Dutchman, like Matip, Konaté and Gomez. It’s more about the ability to switch play on a dime, progress the play forward, and smoothly play out from the back under pressure.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhile the likes of Konaté and Gomez are sharp operators in and out of possession, they don’t possess that world class level of defending nor possession that Van Dijk maintains. They’re also still operating with Fabinho at the heart of the midfield, who for all his quality, is not the same kind of ‘Deep-Lying-Playmaker’ as a Jorginho or Rodri type. It then becomes even more integral that their centre-back is not only a colossal monster capable of holding off any Premier League forward, but one that dominates the ball.
Now with that criteria in mind, we’ve identified seven potential solutions across Europe’s top leagues. These are not only some of the best options under the age of 27, but the best that harmonize both Liverpool and Van Dijk’s style of play. The names are as follows:
- Axel Disasi – AS Monaco
- Josko Gvardiol – RB Leipzig
- Levi Colwill – Brighton
- Min-Jae Kim – Napoli
- Obite Evan Ndicka – Eintracht Frankfurt
- Pau Torres – Villarreal
- Sven Botman – Newcastle
We break down each of the targets into three essential categories, ensuring Liverpool get the most bang for their buck on a Van Dijk replacement.
Build-up & Progression
Embed from Getty ImagesKlopp’s Liverpool live and breathe “heavy metal football”, or as Pep Lijnders put it in his recent book – their identity is ‘intensity.’ Under normal circumstances, that means speed, precision, and confidence on the ball, but also a sense of composure and patience when the moment’s right.
Out of the seven candidates, Min-Jae Kim stands out for his supreme confidence on the ball. He’s remarkably similar to the Dutchman when it comes to progressive passing and passing success, finishing only behind Van Dijk himself on passing percentage (92.1%) and accurate passes into the penalty area. He surpasses Van Dijk on both progressive passes (9.88), and tops our charts on accurate forward passes (86%). In other words, he’s not only a composed presence, but one with tremendous ability to progress the play forward.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhen it comes to tactical nous, Liverpool’s next centre-back must also be astute at creating passing angles for teammates like Alisson, and know how and when to pause on the ball. Levi Colwill of Brighton excels in this department, currently under the tutelage of Roberto De Zerbi. The 20-year-old has miscontrolled the ball fewer times than any other candidate on our list, and remains tremendously difficult to dispossess. That’s important, as Virgil Van Dijk is yet to be dispossessed all season. When it comes to splitting defenses and playing the ball into the final third, no one in our cohort excels more than Colwill (82%).
Embed from Getty ImagesThen there’s Josko Gvardiol, who would be the most expensive of the lot, but also the most prized after. Gvardiol loves to take risks, and plays in a high-pressing league where he’s often under immense pressure. That combination has caused him to be lower on our list when it comes to keeping hold of the ball, but he still comes out on top when it comes to the accuracy of his progressive passes (79.8%), and places only behind Kim and Van Dijk on the total accuracy of his passes (91.9%).
Embed from Getty ImagesAxel Disasi and Sven Botman firmly hold their own, with the Monaco man second to Gvardiol on accurate progressive passes, and the Newcastle defender placing first on accurate long passes (61%). Botman may be more unlikely to make a move if Newcastle secure Champions League football over Liverpool (not to mention his wages), but has the perfect amount of pedigree to fit the system.
Embed from Getty ImagesPau Torres is the only one who falls behind here, although he has proven himself for a high-possession side like Spain, and has the necessary composure and long passing pedigree. Evan Ndicka is more of a ball carrier of the Joel Matip mold, and so that would be a consideration for the Reds if swinging for the free fences down in Frankfurt.
Embed from Getty ImagesEncouragingly for the Reds, six of our seven candidates play on the left-side of the defense for their current clubs (only Disasi on the right), and five are left-footed (only Disasi and Kim are right-footed). This would allow for a more seamless transition into Klopp’s defensive set-up and build-up principles, not to mention opening up corridors of space to play forward down Van Dijk’s side. Based on the metrics assessed, any of our options remain as fantastic candidates, but Min-Jae Kim and Levi Colwill emerge as standout ball progressors.
Defending & duelling
Embed from Getty ImagesFor any centre back, dealing with opposition attacks remains of the upmost importance. Van Dijk’s always been on another level when it comes to this side of the game, and imposes a significant fear factor into the opposition. Before he arrived in 2018, Liverpool struggled to compete physically, particularly in 1v1 moments. Van Dijk completely turned the tide in that regard, and the Reds still don’t look the same without his presence at the back.
Embed from Getty ImagesIt would be hard to match the Dutchman’s defensive nous, but having a world-class centre-back remains imperative for the Reds, so that they can return to competing for the top trophies in Europe. Having played fewer matches than the rest this season, Levi Colwill again stands out in a few key categories – with an impressive defensive duelling success rate of 71.9%. He even comes close to Van Dijk’s presence in the air, winning 68% of his headed duels this season to the Dutchman’s 70.4%.
Embed from Getty ImagesMin-Jae Kim and Axel Disasi are second and third by narrow margins, each also boasting impressive percentages above 70%. But it’s Kim who truly stands out when it then comes to timing tackles to perfection – something that made Van Dijk such an imposing figure in his heyday. The South Korean international has won 83.3% of his tackles this season, which is too incredible to simply be an overperformance in the numbers.
Embed from Getty ImagesDisasi’s more similar to Van Dijk in that he only makes tackles when absolutely necessary, instead more often using his physicality to win the day. The same goes for Pau Torres, who reads the game well and smartly adjusts his position when danger strikes.
Almost the opposite could be said of Josko Gvardiol, who loves to get stuck in and make a tackle. He’s more Nat Phillips when it comes to making defensive actions than Virgil Van Dijk, but has also kept things relatively clean this season, on just 0.04 yellow cards per 90.
Embed from Getty ImagesIt’s worth noting that Van Dijk’s excelled beyond 1v1 defensive prowess, boasting impressive vision and reading of the game. When you adjust for possession, Phillips is the only Liverpool centre-back who surpasses Gvardiol and Kim on reading of the game (7.6 and 8.4 possession-adjusted interceptions). Disasi comes close (7.2), and also stands out for his discipline (0.04 yellow cards per 90 as well). Sven Botman also nicely combines the two, with just 0.4 fouls per 90 and 7.1 possession-adjusted interceptions per 90.
Embed from Getty ImagesFurther, Liverpool play such a high line that the defenders must possess loads of pace to catch up with quick forwards like Erling Haaland and Marcus Rashford, both of whom have found joy in gaps between the Reds’ defense this season. When the inescapable happens, van Dijk is positionally aware, reacts quickly and can time his challenge well. This means our defender needs to be a master of timing, but also possess speed, acceleration, and determination. Axel Disasi and Obite Evan N’Dicka are ideal in these moments, and Min-Jae Kim also excels as a ‘Sweeper’ in behind the defense.
Embed from Getty ImagesAgain, all of our candidates have unique qualities, but it’s hard to overlook Min-Jae Kim and Levi Colwill. Axel Disasi clearly competes at every level needed, and while more erratic, Josko Gvardiol would be bundles of fun.
Leadership & Organization
Embed from Getty ImagesAttempting to reach the seismic impact that Virgil Van Dijk has made on Liverpool will be a near-impossible task. His influence has been felt through more than just his on and off-the-ball actions, but also through his leadership and organization on and off the pitch. He’s been able to lead the team through thick and thin, consistently ordering his defensive line to maintain the team’s intensity and compactness.
Embed from Getty ImagesAny new face should be capable of being a vocal presence on the field, and should perhaps even be capable of growing into the armband in the future. We also can’t neglect Liverpool’s style of play here, which often requires the ability to manage a high line and an aggressive offside trap.
Embed from Getty ImagesAxel Disasi has proven capable of handling these responsibilities, whilst captaining Monaco for half of their games this season. This is one such area where Pau Torres also suits the billing, having gained the necessary skills to read the game from the likes of Sergio Ramos with Spain, and Raul Albiol at Villarreal. Many of the others are untested in this category (and it’s difficult to quantify statistically), but Kim and Gvardiol have also clearly made themselves vocal and impactful when organizing a defense and defending long passes over top a high-line. It must be a consideration for the Reds, and this is where it might be Axel Disasi‘s time to shine.
The verdict
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter analyzing a range of statistics and considerations, we think the most ideal replacement for the Liverpool legend is someone who perfectly personifies Van Dijk’s style of play, and could cost very little money. That would be Axel Disasi, who performed well in all three categories, and is valued at just £35 million according to Transfermarkt. Monaco’s vice-captain possesses idyllic stopper characteristics that make him formidable in pressing scenarios, but he can also nicely sweep in behind the defense. He has the strength to shield opponents away from goal, and also happens to be supremely smart when progressing the play.
It’s tough to ignore Min-Jae Kim and Levi Colwill in the debate, and if the Reds have any ability to lower Josko Gvardiol’s price-tag they should at least make an offer. But Axel Disasi would be an excellent option for Liverpool to consider, as both a commanding leader, and an absolute bargain.
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Who do you think should be Liverpool’s next centre-back? Be sure to share your thoughts below, and follow on social media @mastermindsite and Charlie @C3llis8. Thanks for reading and see you soon!
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