Replacing Jude Bellingham at Borussia Dortmund – Tactical Analysis

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Borussia Dortmund have notoriously been outstanding at poaching young talent from an early age and turning them into world beaters. Within just the last five years, the club have accumulated massive fees for the likes of Ousmane Dembélé, Jadon Sancho, and Erling Haaland. The next to follow along that path is possibly one of Dortmund’s greatest signings and greatest teenage talents of all-time – Jude Bellingham.

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The British midfielder made his debut for the Black & Yellows as a 17-year-old, and went on to captain the team as a 19-year-old in a historic final season for him at the club. Borussia Dortmund are now not only losing one of the most talented footballers on the planet and their best player, but a real leader in the team even despite his youth.

With that, we aim to find the next man who could step up to the plate at Borussia Dortmund in his stead.

BELLINGHAM’S POSITIONING & ROLE

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Jude Bellingham made himself a fantastically versatile player for the Black & Yellows, but predominantly played as a right-sided central midfielder. He fulfilled ‘Box-to-Box’ responsibilities as the ‘8’ in the team, alongside a more defensive partner in either a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1.

Through that position, Bellingham became pivotal in all phases of the game. He excelled in counter attacking transitions when he could use his speed and dynamism on the ball, and those silky twinkle toes as he dazzled and danced around opposition defenders.

RELATED: Game of Numbers #11 – How to dribble like Jude Bellingham

In the final third, Bellingham often combined in those neat and tidy Borussia Dortmund connections, in addition to crashing the box at vital moments to score. Prior to this season however, the English international often made himself more of a creative threat through his dynamism, dribbling and incisive forward passing. He completely flipped the script this season with his 8 goals and 4 assists in 31 appearances, following up from the 2021-22 campaign where he ended on 3 goals and 8 assists in 32 appearances.

Regardless, the Birmingham boy has always made himself a nuisance in the final third, and a capable contributor to Dortmund’s illustrious attack.

But rather impressively, Jude Bellingham always excels on the defensive end. His pressing and counter-pressing energy is relentless, and he’s become more astute about his timing of challenges by the year.

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The 19-year-old won 62% of his defensive duels in 2022-23, while ranking in the top 7% of midfielders on ‘blocks’ (combined blocked passes and shots). Always loving a good tackle, Bellingham even won more possession-adjusted sliding tackles than any of the 20 players we’ve analyzed as potential replacements.

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Few players in the world of football stand out in so many different statistical categories and in so many phases of the game. If you look on FBRef, his statistical report is insane!

It’s all in the green, with highs all the way at the top 1% for successful take-on’s and top 2% of players in his position for touches in the penalty area.

No wonder this is our fourth analysis of the man!

-> Finding Jude Bellingham’s next club
-> Jude Bellingham Scouting Report

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All and all, Jude Bellingham is practically impossible to replace. Good luck to Dortmund finding another teenager with the quality or potential of the Birmingham man. We’ve instead gone for a host of more or less known quantities. The goal of this article is not to find another hidden teenage gem, but to find the perfect replacement for the team’s third captain, ensuring Dortmund go into next season with the right players propelling their title push.

CRITERIA

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After an initial search for players operating in central midfield across the world, we narrowed it down to twenty elite candidates who best exemplified either Bellingham’s qualities, or potential to excel.

While we ultimately want a midfielder who can roam box-to-box, we haven’t excluded those that played more like a ‘6’ this season, especially if they were able to demonstrate competence in moving about the pitch with ease.

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The same goes for the attacking spaces, where Dortmund could easily transform a more attacking player like Julian Brandt into one of their standout central midfielders (like Julian Brandt).

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The final list also incorporates a final screening phase where players too dissimilar from Bellingham were removed altogether. This phase excluded players who were significantly weaker on important traits and characteristics.

It’s also worth noting that we’re including only a few players who are at the peak of their powers. We know the relative level of Daichi Kamada and Konrad Laimer, even if they could still grow their game at a club like Dortmund.

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But most of the players we have to do more guess work in assessing their potential level, especially in deciding if they will ever come close to reaching the level Bellingham accomplished at the club. With that, let’s get into the candidates and our first category.

BOX-TO-BOX ENCHANTMENT

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In replacing Jude Bellingham, we want to find a player who can venture up and down the pitch through not only impeccable mobility, but also a keen awareness of space.

In the pursuit of a Bellingham replacement, we’ve therefore only included names that have the capacity to fulfill that responsibility. That might even be someone that covered spaces laterally as a ‘6’ rather than vertically as an ‘8’ this season, but evidently showcased their rapid mobility about the pitch.

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Statistically, dribbles, progressive carries, kilometres run, distance covered with the ball or even ‘progressive runs’ can showcase that mobility. But heatmaps can also be used here to assess how involved they’ve been in all phases of the game.

When you compare Bellingham’s skillset to our cohort, he ranks the highest out of anyone on ‘successful attacking actions’, dribbles per 90, and his willingness to engage in attacking duels. He’s an incredibly combative player, but also someone that wants to be on the ball and drive the team forward.

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Someone who is incredibly similar in that capacity is Reims midfielder Jens Cajuste, who will be 24 years old heading into next season. The Swedish international completed 67% of his dribbles this season (Wyscout data), and impressed all the more by winning 57% of his attacking duels (6% more than second place!).

With only 14 league starts this season and Azor Matusiwa to compete against in his team’s 4-2-3-1, a move to Borussia Dortmund might feel unlikely at this time. He couldn’t completely solidify himself for Reims, and so it would be unlikely that he’d drastically improve Dortmund’s title hopes in 2023-24. However, his similarities would make for an excellent squad option if looking for someone in the Bellingham mold.

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Some of the other standouts include the usual ‘Box to Box’ suspects like Kouadio Koné, Khéphren Thuram, Joe Willock, and the man who impressed massively at the 2022 World Cup – Azzedine Ounahi. Ounahi excelled for his awareness of space for Morocco at the World Cup, but also made himself a brilliant on-the-ball threat throughout the year. Similarly to Bellingham, he even ranked in the top 1% on FBRef’s progressive categories for ‘progressive carries’ and ‘successful take-on’s.’

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Thuram and Koné meanwhile have played many minutes as their team’s ‘6’, but are also incredibly dynamic, fear-imposing ball progressors. Koné would need to improve his attacking output, but Thuram nicely spikes higher across the phases of the game.

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Joe Willock feels unlikely to leave the Champions League project over at Newcastle United, but he’s consistently illustrated a strong ability to perceive space in the attacking third to receive passes and make himself a constant threat for the Magpies.

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That awareness would likely only heighten with better creative passers around him, and you could easily see his individual quality continue to shine given the press-and-possess similarities between Dortmund and Newcastle. But again, this move feels more unrealistic.

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When you look at a graph of players receiving progressive passes or taking more touches in the attacking penalty area, it becomes a useful comparison to see who generally plays more of an attack-minded role like Bellingham. Daichi Kamada is clearly excellent in his perceptions of space, while Enzo Le Fée’s confidence will only grow having contributed to 11 of Lorient’s goals this season.

But a graph like this clearly indicates which players are more defensive or reserved in their approach for their current club, as opposed to the one’s trusted to be game-changers in the final third. Dortmund can replace Bellingham’s defensive aptitude through other means, but his ball progression and attacking output have to be all encompassing in their next signing.

So in providing a final verdict, the best players to produce Bellingham’s box to box mobility/incisiveness would be the strong running power of Khéphren Thuram, and the immaculate awareness of space possessed by Azzedine Ounahi.

DEFENSIVE RESPONSIBILITIY

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We all know and love Jude Bellingham’s ability on the ball, powerful running, and clever footwork in the final third, but he’s also an incredibly important player on the defensive end. He made nearly 7 recoveries in the opposition’s half per 90 in 2023-24, often making himself a key force in Dortmund’s initial press and counter-press.

But within that box to box role, he also always remained crucial in coming back into a defensive position, where he could then time his challenges to perfection. As mentioned, no player in our database won more sliding tackles when adjusting for possession this season.

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In fact, when comparing the 19-year-old to his challengers, it’s only players that played more as a ‘6’ this season that boast such stellar defensive numbers and IQ. A player like Azzedine Ounahi that clearly excelled in attack when given the time performed on the lower end of this category, making far fewer defensive actions and struggling to contest aerial battles.

Given their combative playing styles, it’s unsurprising to see Sporting’s Manuel Ugarte and Southampton’s Roméo Lavia top the charts. Lavia ranked within the top 4% in his position on ‘blocks’ this season (1.9 per 90), and won an impressive 64.3% of his defensive duels.

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Ugarte on the other hand made an outrageous 8.73 possession-adjusted interceptions this season, always being in the right place at the right time. Both clearly have the capability to cover spaces laterally and the tactical nous when it comes to their positioning. But neither are particularly outstanding when it comes to contributions in the final third.

In the quest to then find someone who combines that defensive responsibility with all the other Bellingham priorities, we have to turn again to Khéphren Thuram-Ulien.

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The 22-year-old times his challenges supremely well, having won 60% of his defensive duels and 58% of his aerial duels this campaign. Orkun Kökçü of Feyenoord excels in similar categories, albeit with less defensive output altogether.

Although not exceptional in the air, this is also where we can make the strongest argument for Konrad Laimer – an excellent disruptor for RB Leipzig.

Laimer often fits best in our player evaluation system as a ‘Shuttler’, due to his defensive attributes within a box-to-box role. The graph above illustrates his similarities to Bellingham, but also just how astute he can be when it comes to anticipating actions and timing challenges. He’s likely the best candidate to replace Bellingham’s defensive quality, whilst still adding so much more moving forward. But in finding someone younger that could grow into that capacity, Khéphren Thuram again feels like a great fit.

FINAL THIRD FINESSE

Bellingham eased into his role as an attacking threat for the Black & Yellows, but has now posted up incredible numbers the past two seasons, and has been one of Dortmund’s driving forces in attacking phases.

His close control dribbling makes him an imposing figure to stop, but he’s also astute about when and how to pick up space in the final third. This awareness of space leads to much in the way of chance creation and optimal shot-taking, with the Dortmund man’s numbers improving each season. It goes without saying that it would be a strong asset if Dortmund could replace the 19-year-old’s incredible attacking talent.

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One player that stands out across all three categories is Chelsea’s Carney Chukwuemeka, who potentially accumulated standout numbers due to his limited minutes this season. But in that limited amount of time, the British midfielder excelled with his forward (85%) and progressive (93%) passing. Chelsea could have achieved more with his 1.38 shot assists per 90, and we all know that he possesses that box-to-box mobility both on and off-the-ball.

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If you erase the possession metrics from this category, Daichi Kamada comes alive as the favourite. He accumulated 0.39 xG + xA per 90 this season for Frankfurt, completing nearly 2 passes into the penalty area per 90. Kamada clearly possesses the final third finesse to take part in Dortmund’s close connections, and offers versatility to play on either wing, as an ‘8’, or ’10’. The Japanese international might join AC Milan after his contract expires this month, but Dortmund would be wise to swoop in for one of the Bundesliga’s best if they wanted to pounce.

In finding a suitable replacement, this is however the most difficult category to replace. It’s rare to find a player that combines all the wonderful assets of Bellingham, and then also contributes so prevalently in front of goal. Joe Willock stands out once more for his late arriving runs and precision passing, but remains a difficult asset to attain. Beyond Willock, from a pure chance creation and goal-scoring perspective, it’s 22-year-old Orkun Kökcü that looks the most impressive.

VERDICT

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Borussia Dortmund’s quest to replace Jude Bellingham is incredibly difficult, given the vast array of qualities he possesses. The current transfer rumours surrounding the club might even be more illuminating on that front, with the Black & Yellows linked with many defensive midfielders and not much in the way of genuine box-to-box ‘8’s’ capable of playing in the Bellingham mold. That simply might be down to the fact that very few players on the planet can replace his quality.

If Dortmund want a pure like-for-like switch, we mentioned earlier how Jens Cajuste offers the most similar profile. However, Dortmund need a man who is clearly and immediately capable of stepping up to the plate and becoming one of their most dangerous players.

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Assuming that Joe Willock is out of reach, Khéphren Thuram stands out as a well-rounded option that can contribute positively through some of the same key on and off-the-ball metrics. The 22-year-old Nice midfielder has thoroughly impressed the past two seasons in Ligue 1, and could be ready for that next leap. Dortmund would be the perfect stepping stone if he has higher aspirations, and would be a fantastic landing spot given the need for another midfielder.

Khéphren Thuram, it’s time for an offer.

Dortmund do however love to turn teenage talent into something spectacular, and Carney Chukwuemeka would be an outstanding signing if they can somehow lure him away from the Bridge, even just on a loan.

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The Black & Yellows have many options at their disposal, even if none are quite as stellar as Bellingham himself. They need to find a replacement before next season and they need to act fast before all of these names are picked up by other clubs.

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