Replacing Declan Rice at West Ham United – Tactical Analysis

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The move away from West Ham that seemed inevitable for years has finally transpired, after a multitude of clubs have been linked with Declan Rice over the past few seasons. Under the tutelage of David Moyes and Gareth Southgate, the West Ham captain became one of the world’s best defensive midfielders, and one of the most well-rounded for the variety of traits and skillsets he encapsulates.

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Not only is Declan Rice a formidable presence on the ball, he’s also an excellent reader of the game and always makes his presence felt in defensive phases. Any club wishing for his signature needed to spend over 100 million pounds, and the fee scared many of Europe’s top clubs away.

But after winning the Europa Conference League and securing some extra funding and European football for another season, the time to let Declan Rice go felt right. The Brit had just one year left on his contract, and would go for free next year as possibly the club’s greatest all-time players. Arsenal swooped in for the midfielder for that £105 million fee, with West Ham yet to sign his replacement.

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The task of replacing Declan Rice is now a near impossible task. While you could likely combine his traits in a trio of midfielders for that price, no one that West Ham United could convince to join the club will be able to make such a massive single-handed impact at the London Stadium.

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Nevertheless, we scoured through the data and footage of hundreds of players to find those most similar to Declan Rice, and those that could make up for some of what’s lost without his services. With that, here is our analysis of how West Ham United can attempt to replace Declan Rice.

CRITERIA & PHASES OF THE ANALYSIS

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Our Declan Rice replacement must have longevity bursting through their veins! So if you’re twenty-eight or above, you’re out!

When it comes to age and experience, the sweet spot might just be around Declan Rice’s current age (24). We want a player who is generally old enough that they already have years of experience under their belt. That experience should mean they are more likely to hit the ground running, and that we have a better sense of the level they can reach. For all the hype around players under the age of 21, it’s sometimes hard to attest for the kind of player they will become when they’re older.

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Only four of our twenty candidates are 22 years old or below, and only three are currently 26 or above. The remaining eleven fall under that sweet spot of being 23 to 25 years old.

Age is far from the only important category here, and we also want to bring in a realistic signing for David Moyes’ team. We analyzed only players with a market value below €35 million, about a third of what West Ham received for Rice’s transfer to Arsenal. This approach has two advantages. For one, West Ham could actually sign three of the players we present if they wanted to, ensuring that at least one of them makes the impact.

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For another, every player we present here is attainable and potentially available for the Hammers. We’ve cross-referenced news sources to stay up to date on the latest news and rumours, ensuring none of our candidates are moments away from securing a move.

Finally, we only analyzed players that had stark similarities to Declan Rice, ensuring that the player we find can fit the mold immediately for Moyes’ men. Rice’s on-the-ball dominance, precision passing, and defensive reading of the game were all analyzed in reference to our candidates, helping to remove a host of players that would not be capable of playing in the same way for the Hammers.

We also assessed whether or not Lucas Paquetá could play in a similar way, having done the ‘Bernardo Silva role’ of dropping in and dictating play for much of his time at Lyon.

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While Paquetá’s defensive numbers hit higher than expected, the physicality of the Brazilian presents a seismic difference to Rice, and he’s nowhere near the same progressor.

He loses a high percentage of his attacking duels given the area of the pitch that those encounters often take place, but if this continued into West Ham’s own half, that would be a risk for the Hammers. Paquetá is therefore not a candidate, but he has been kept in the data for purposes of comparison, and the realism behind West Ham making the Brazilian their replacement instead.

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After the data search and video comparisons, a candidacy list of fifty names became eighteen. The names removed were either too dissimilar from Rice in comparison to stronger candidates, or paled in comparison to the Brit’s magnificence. Given Rice’s role as somewhat of a ‘Deep-Lying-Playmaker’ for the Hammers even in a low-possession approach, those that lacked that cutting edge when controlling games and dominating the ball were most often ones that found themselves removed.

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The twenty names were then tested against Rice in the ‘Deep-Lying-Playmaker’ and ‘Shuttler’ personas (given Rice’s box-to-box ability within a defensive frame), and ranked accordingly. That final list will be presented at the end of the article, but first, we’ll break down the important characteristics of Rice’s game, and the candidates who most closely fit the billing.

DOMINANCE ON THE BALL

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For all his defensive quality in a low-possession team, Declan Rice is a force to be reckoned with on the ball. He carries, dribbles and passes with a level of command that few others can match.

Importantly for the Hammers, Rice is the man cooking the meals. He’s the one pulling all the strings around him, orchestrating attacks and setting the tempo. He’ll slow the play down in some moments and keep the game ticking along, especially for England. But for the Hammers, he also often wants to drive forward and push defenses back through his physicality on the dribble.

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Rice reaches the top when it comes to the precision behind his forward passing, ranking behind only one of our candidates when it comes to forward passes (83.4%) and accuracy of passes into the final third (84.9%). But he remains untouchable when it comes to those counter-attack setting long-passes or those beautiful switches of play, where the 24-year-old completes 68% of his long passes. To give you a comparison, the archer himself in James Ward-Prowse completed just 43% of his long passes across the last 365 days, albeit with worse teammates to receive those passes.

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On the passing and progression front, no one can compare like Benfica’s Florentino Luís. The Portuguese midfielder has caught the eye of clubs like AC Milan already, but we think West Ham have the sway in the market to attract a player of Luís’ level. The 23-year-old midfielder not only completed a high number of progressive and tempo-setting passes in a high octane Benfica team, but did so with the highest levels of precision.

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He’s the only player to consistently outperform Rice in this category, impressing in both the Champions League and the Primeira Liga this season for the title winners.

When you watch Florentino Luís, he has that same physicality and speed of play as Declan Rice, able to assess his surroundings and adjust to make optimal decisions. But he also plays with more of a swagger and tenacity that Hammers fans would absolutely adore.

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Of the men able to match Rice’s accuracy on the ball, Matteo Guendouzi and Maxence Caqueret present two more dynamic options that play the game above that 1x speed. Potentially lightweight options that don’t produce the same physicality, both Guendouzi and Caqueret scream supremacy when it comes to their ability to pick out a pass from anywhere on the field.

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But they are also both known for their desire to break lines on a dribble. Guendouzi tends to be more successful when breaking and evading pressure, while Caqueret has more of a willingness to go toe-to-toe in 1v1 situations.

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Florentino Luís on the other hand is less likely to progress the play through his forward carrying, preferring to carry the ball sideways and break lines through his precision passing instead. He achieves a high rate of success when dribbling past opponents with his smooth close control and awareness of space, but lacks the same physicality to win a high percentage of his attacking duels overall.

In finding players that have not only the willingness to take players on and progress the play through their dribbling power, but are successful when doing so, Youssouf Fofana excels with his 65% dribble completion rate. Yunus Musah and Orkun Kökçü also emerge as outliers for their commanding presence when carrying forward.

But impressively, Edson Álvarez also presents a similar comparison to Declan Rice on all levels – a slight surprise given the difference in team play styles and Álvarez’s defensive positioning as a ‘6’ or centre-back for Ajax.

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A final note on the graph would be that it’s clear what West Ham would be missing if they replaced Declan Rice with Lucas Paquetá. The Brazilian is an excellent presence to have on the ball given his skill and composure, but he lacks the same cutting edge when dictating the tempo and progressing the play forward.

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In providing a final verdict, it’s difficult to look beyond Florentino Luís given his tremendous ability to pass his way out of any situation. But Matteo Guendouzi and Edson Álvarez would be excellent options given their similarity to Rice, and their ability to add dynamism on the dribble.

DEFENSIVE AWARENESS

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Another facet of Declan Rice’s play that always stands out is his uncanny ability to read space and anticipate the opposition’s attacking endeavours.

Across the last 365 days, Rice ranks in the top 5% for interceptions, and the top 4% on tackle percentage. He’s not only astute about reading the spaces to intercept passing maneuvers, but astutely aware about when to go to ground.

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He excels in the air, rarely makes a foul, and no midfielder in Europe’s top five leagues surpasses his exceptional 9.2 recoveries per 90. To find Rice’s vast array of defensive quality in someone else is going to be quite the task.

This might therefore be an area where it remains best to combine the close control quality of a player like Matteo Guendouzi or Maxece Caqueret with a defensive stalwart who might be less progressive on the ball.

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At the top of the list is another man who spent much of this season having to do the dirt work in defensive phases for both club and country. Tyler Adams may have been relegated with Leeds United, but he excelled with his superb ball-winning awareness, and dominance in defensive duels. For the States, Adams even played that ‘Midfield Destroyer’ role as a ‘6’, where he made his presence felt on one of the grandest stages of all at the 2022 World Cup.

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For his ability to read the game, Edson Álvarez comes closest to matching Declan Rice. He made 9.2 ball recoveries per 90 for a high-possession Ajax side, and made more possession-adjusted interceptions (9.6) than any player in our cohort. With that same level of physicality and brute force, Álvarez again stands out.

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Although only 19 years of age and having to spend some time on the bench this season, Lesley Ugochukwu boasts impressive percentages in 1v1 duels, placing in second place on both defensive duelling and tackle percentages.

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The man that tops one of those charts is someone that also impressed in the previous category, Florentino Luís. The 23-year-old clearly has a knack for shutting down space and breaking up play, winning close to 70% of his tackles and 65% of his defensive duels overall.

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Like Tyler Adams, the Benfica man isn’t afraid to put a foot in and take matters into his own hands. While West Ham prefer a cautious, stable approach to defending, this kind of assertiveness would still be an advantage for the Hammers.

The above graph may look a bit chaotic, and that’s partially because our candidates were curated with the intentionality behind defensive reading of the game and astuteness when it comes to making interceptions and recoveries.

To then combine that with a high defensive duelling rate like Rice and Tyler Adams then becomes a more difficult feat. But a few names stand out that haven’t earned much fan-fare so far. Manuel Ugarte is a highly combative defensive presence, completely capable of breaking up play.

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Ibrahim Sangaré meanwhile is an astute reader of the game, who also combines that physical presence to win aerial battles and force mistakes.

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FC Twente’s Ramiz Zerrouki also impresses across the board in every defensive category, and has much familiarity playing in that 4-2-3-1 formation. The same could be said of Azor Matusiwa, a supremely commanding presence for SC Reims.

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If it were just down to defensive quality alone, Tyler Adams would likely walk away victorious. However, when building off the learnings from the previous section, we cannot overlook Edson Álvarez and Florentino Luís once more.

THE VERDICT

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In finding a similar skillset and style to Declan Rice, and a player who can attainably reach similar levels, Edson Álvarez and Florentino Luís stand out above the pack. Luís emerged as the best game controller while also achieving high peaks on the defensive end, while Edson Álvarez matched up most closely to Rice’s high numbers in the most important categories.

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The problem in both cases might be the fact that these are possibly the two best players in our study. Either player could make a move to a Champions League club in the next few months, or stay playing Champions League football for their current sides.

Rank	Player	Team	Age	MP	Duel %	Fwd Pass %	Prog. C
0	D. Rice	West Ham United	24	61	57.96	83.37	3.03
1	Florentino Luís	Benfica	23	54	54.81	85.28	3.08
2	E. Álvarez	Ajax	25	49	54.1	80.56	1.35
3	I. Sangaré	PSV	25	48	54.52	76.22	0.89
4	R. Zerrouki	Twente	25	42	54.58	75.03	0.54
5	T. Adams	Leeds United	24	30	58.26	75.36	0.84
6	A. Sambi Lokonga	Arsenal	23	26	60.37	81.69	2.36
7	A. Matusiwa	Reims	25	31	53.65	81.13	2.28
8	M. Caqueret	Olympique Lyonnais	23	40	47.99	83.11	2.54
9	O. Kökçü	Feyenoord	22	51	48.46	75.17	0.63
10	M. Guendouzi	Olympique Marseille	24	44	49.16	80.74	1.5
11	Y. Fofana	AS Monaco	24	57	53.49	71.79	0.24
12	M. Ugarte	Sporting CP	22	47	55.35	72.97	0.3
13	K. Phillips	Manchester City	27	25	51.88	74.81	0.47
14	L. Ugochukwu	Rennes	19	35	60.86	78.6	1.09
15	S. Spierings	Toulouse	27	42	54.32	78.62	1.23
16	Stephen Eustáquio	Porto	26	50	52.21	78.9	1.25
17	A. Haidara	RB Leipzig	25	46	52.79	75.32	0.79
18	Y. Musah	Valencia	20	45	45.71	81.79	2.42

Unfortunately, the same could likely be said of Ibrahim Sangaré, who’s stood out for PSV across the last couple of years. Ramiz Zerrouki on the other hand could be an under the radar pick, also with a contract expiring next year.

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But in finding someone who can reasonably guess to be capable of performing in the Prem, Tyler Adams has to be the first choice should the top three options on the board all remain out of reach.

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The statistical analysis proved useful in squashing the idea of Lucas Paquetà fulfilling the role, given that he pales in comparison on many of the key metrics. Meanwhile, targets like Kalvin Phillips and Yunus Musah ranked below many others, even despite the evident quality they would bring to the table.

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In closing out the article, we suggest West Ham United make bids for Edson Álvarez and Florentino Luís, and let the cards fall into place however the negotiations progress from there. The Hammers have the money to spend, and it would be a phenomenal double-swoop if they somehow signed both starlets.

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